This article is written by P. Radomski. He gives an analysis of what the fundamental and (indirect) technical picture shows for the long term outlook for gold prices

Gold’s Performance to Date

Lately, gold has been a disappointment to many investors while it has been mostly treading water. Gold has traded well beneath its all-time high of $1,924 an ounce on September 6th and well above its subsequent low near $1,520 which took place in late December. Many anticipated higher prices this year, but the year isn’t over yet, and neither is gold’s long-term spectacular, secular bull market. We are now in one of those periods of consolidation that tries the souls of gold investors, tests their resolve and challenges their staying power. This is when the market takes a breather and adjusts to prepare for the next major move.

If you need some encouraging news, according to the latest IMF statistics, at least 12 countries are known to have increased their gold reserves in March continuing a trend that goes back more than two years. Overall Central Banks appear to have purchased about 58 tons in the month, which suggests acceleration in their gold accumulation. The significant purchases were by Mexico, which increased its holdings by 16.81 tons; Russia with purchases of 16.55 tons and Turkey with 11.48 tons. The statistics only show the figures for those nations which are transparent in their reporting. In the past there have been some sharp ‘upwards adjustments,’ to gold reserves notably from China, which seems to like to accumulate its gold on the quiet. Last year Central Banks that do report their statistics bought 439.7 tons of gold and many gold analysts are predicting similar levels of purchases in 2012. And to think that years ago investors feared that the bull market will end a long time ago because of massive sales of gold by governments and monetary authorities over the world…

Long Term Charts of USD Index and S&P 500 and How They Impact Gold

Analyzing the fundamental situation and news is important, but the analysis would be incomplete without referring to charts. In today’s essay, we will focus on the long-term charts of USD Index and S&P 500 and then briefly discuss the impact that they can have on the gold market.

Let’s begin with the analysis of the US Dollar Index (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)

On the above chart we see that the sideways trading patterns continue between the two levels which are quite important from a technical perspective. These are the declining long-term support line and the horizontal support line based on the early 2011 high. At this point, the very-long term chart remains mixed with a bearish bias (after all, the prevailing trend is down).

To illustrate how small the trading range has been for the USD Index recently, the past six Premium Updates have found the change from the previous week to be as follows: down .41, down .61, up .95, down .79, up .25, and down .39. So nearly every week saw a change of less than 1% for the index value of a week earlier, and with the good mix of ups and downs, this is a prime example of true sideways trading.

Still, with the main trend being down, the odds are that the next significant move will take the USD Index lower, not higher.

Having said that, let’s take a look at the general stock market.

From the long-term perspective, the bottom in the S&P 500 Index appears to be in. The support line based on previous highs has been reached and crossed but the breakdown failed. Prices bounced higher soon after reaching this line (based on 2011 high), and the long-term picture is bullish based on this development.

The Correlation Matrix is a tool, which we have developed to analyze the impact of the currency markets and the general stock market upon the precious metals sector. Let’s see how the above can translate into future price moves of gold.

Since we are discussing the long-term impact, please focus on the 1500-trading-day column. The values of correlation coefficients are negative in terms of the relationship between precious metals (gold, silver, mining stocks) and the USD Index and they are mixed as far as metals-stocks link is concerned. Consequently, the rather negative long-term situation in the USD Index is what we should focus on and since its relationship is inverse, we can infer that the long-term picture for gold is indeed bullish.

Conclusion of The Impact of the Combination of Gold and S&P 500 Prices

Summing up, both: fundamental and (indirect) technical factors provides with a bullish long-term outlook for the gold market. As far as short-term is concerned and whether the consolidation is over or not is a different matter and other factors (not mentioned above) must be taken into account.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It’s free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

Author: P Radomski

P. Radomski
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By reading Mr. Radomski’s essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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Chris Vermeulen gives awesome calls on Equities and Commodities.

Tonight, he gives his take on the S&P 500 and what he considers its Dead cat Bounce.

Friday Technical Analysis

We are seeing stocks, oil and the dollar move up nicely today.

Stocks are pushing deep into a resistance level with very light volume… not a bullish sign. This is why we took profits yesterday with our SSO trade once we reached our dead cat bounce target of 2.5%. With it being Friday volume should only get lighter as the say progresses. I am starting to look at buying SDS as risk is low in my opinion but I’m going to let the morning play out first and re analyze in the afternoon.

Get more information on how the Equities market affects your profits

Pre-Dead Cat Bounce Warning:

The rising market has sent the volatility index tumbling lower and this just goes to show why you must manage position and use protective stops. I know many of you were angry that I said to take partial profits and that we got stopped out yesterday on the VXX trade for a net gain of 2.9% in three days. Maybe one day emotional traders will see that you must trade with the market and adjust your trade outlook while in the trade. The market does not stop and wait for you to see the light, rather it will just steam roll you and never look back.

So with that being said I am starting to really like the VXX again for another buy signal. With any luck it could keep dropping for most of the session and we could go long this afternoon.

 You can get more information here

Crude oil is moving nicely in our favor today up another 2% on our 2x leveraged ETF’s. I am keeping my stop at breakeven for now as but that may change by the end of the day if we break the $109 level which is unlikely. Where to put your stops for any trade is always a tough call. It varies on the time frame, overall market condition and the size of your position so don’t think it’s just as simple s using the previous pivot high or low. That being said, those are good places for them if you have the timing correct or if the market co-operates with you…

*One key thing to point out today, the dollar bounced off support which is what I warned about last night and again this morning in pre-market. The strong bounce in the dollar has not caused any selling in oil or stocks this morning. I think that is based on the strong jobs report this morning. More jobs means businesses should be getting stronger and the more gas/oil will be consumed. But if the dollar keeps on moving higher and breaks above this key resistance level in the next few trading sessions then it will likely cause selling in stocks. Oil may hold up because demand will still be there.

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Let’s see how the morning and lunch unfolds and regroup.

Chris Vermeulen – Free Trade Ideas – www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

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This is a article by Chris Vermeulen and JW Jones on Gold Fundamentals

The Long-Term Fundamental Case for Gold

“No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.”

~ United States Constitution, Excerpt from Article 1, Section 10 ~

A quick glance at most of the headlines over the weekend and the primary focus seemed to be either calling a near term top in domestic equity indices or a focus on the Greek debt situation. Why is anyone even paying attention to what is going on over there? Until the ISDA declares a default where the underlying Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are triggered, it is all just noise.

The ECB has broken the rule of law by placing itself as the senior creditor ahead of private creditors, the Greek government is trying to pass retroactive legislation to trap private sector creditors holding out of the PSI, and the leader of Greece was not even elected by the people of Greece – how much more manipulation and insanity do we need to monitor?

Similar to the price action since 2008, central banks around the world control everything from financial markets to the ascent of political leaders. These same political leaders help central bankers and planners control policy and decision making at the highest government levels in Europe and around the world. It would seem that the United States should change the motto from “We the People” to “We the Bankers.”

However, there is one particular asset class that even the central bankers have a hard time controlling. While they can impact short term price action through direct currency manipulation initiatives, in the longer-term gold is likely to move in only one direction – higher.

The price action on Tuesday reminded market participants that actions such as the Greek bailout come at a cost. Quantitative easing and/or printing money (depending on what one wishes to call the practice of producing fiat currency out of thin air) has a direct impact on the price of gold.

Many financial pundits argue that gold has no utility, but what they fail to recognize is that gold is the senior currency to all other fiat currencies. Silver is also a form of currency and is senior to all other fiat currencies as well. While one can draw the utility of gold into question, the idea that gold is the senior most currency to all other fiat currencies is not new.

The Constitution of the United States of America, which is over 200 years old, refers to gold and silver as forms of payment.  Looking back thousands of years the Romans used gold coins as a form of currency. The idea that gold and silver are currencies is certainly not a grandiose thought or a stretch of historical concept. Trying to depict gold as a worthless asset depends on your view and consideration of fiat currency.

There are those that would argue that the Federal Reserve of the United States is not actively manipulating economic conditions domestically or abroad. For those that view gold as a poor investment or hedge against currency devaluation need to consider the charts illustrated below. The chart below was produced by Thomas Gresham of Gresham’s Law.

Total Asset Growth of the Federal Reserve System – 1915 – 2012

It is rather obvious by looking at this chart that the Federal Reserve has actively sought to enter domestic and foreign financial markets. The surge in balance sheet assets serves to prove how far the Federal Reserve Bank is willing to go to maintain markets which seemingly are only allowed to move higher over time.

This chart is bearish for nearly any form of paper backed assets. The above referenced chart is long-term bearish for the Dollar and Treasuries and long-term bullish for physical gold and silver. As the Federal Reserve continues to debase the U.S. Dollar in concert with other central banks’ monetary easing programs, gold and silver prices over time are destined to move higher in virtually every form of fiat currency.

During the same time frame that the Federal Reserve has seen its balance sheet grow exponentially, the rapid rise of M2 money supply is staggering. The long term chart of M2 is compared to gold futures in the charts presented below.

M2 Money Stock

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Gold Futures Monthly Chart

It is rather obvious what has happened to the price of gold as the M2 money supply has grown. The idea that the Federal Reserve has not already destroyed a significant amount of the purchasing power of the Dollar can easily be refuted by the two charts shown above.

In the short-term, gold and silver could suffer from a pullback, but in the intermediate to longer term it is unlikely that we have seen the highs of this bull market for either metal. As long as central banks around the world continue to print money and expand their balance sheets gold and silver will remain in a long-term bull market. The daily chart of gold futures is presented below.

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Gold Futures Daily Chart

As can be seen above, it is not out of the question that we could see gold pullback to test one of the key moving averages in coming days/weeks. However, I expect the key support area to hold in the event of a sharp selloff. Ultimately, I expect to see a breakout over the resistance zone in the days/weeks ahead. However, I would not be surprised to see gold consolidate or work marginally lower from current prices before breaking out to the upside. Right now the primary threat in this fledgling gold rally is a short-term spike higher in the U.S. Dollar. The primary catalyst which could drive a flight to the Dollar involves the sovereign debt situation in Greece and the Eurozone as a whole.

While the short-term price action may be bearish, the intermediate to longer term time frames are quite bullish for metals as central banks will continue to race to debase their currencies. Quantitative easing in the U.S. and around the world will become pervasive and gold prices could potentially soar in value. The data from the Federal Reserve Bank itself suggests that they are indeed increasing the money supply. As time has passed, the money supply and gold have seemingly grown in lockstep with one another. Surely inquiring minds do not consider this mutual relationship between gold and the money supply to be purely coincidental.

As further evidence that the Federal Reserve continues to use quantitative easing to manipulate asset prices through direct entry into financial markets, a chart of the velocity of M2 clearly depicts that the velocity of money is declining. I am not an expert regarding macroeconomic data, but if the velocity of money is declining to 1960’s levels would it be a stretch to say that we may be going through a period of stagflation? The chart below illustrates the Velocity of M2 Money Stock courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.

Velocity of M2 Money Stock

For those unfamiliar with the term velocity of money, it is simply the rate of turnover in the overall money supply. The velocity of M2 is expressed as the number of times that a Dollar is used to purchase final goods or services which are included in the total gross domestic product.

Conclusion

The short term technical picture in gold is a bit suspect due to overhead resistance and recent U.S. Dollar strength. However, the longer term macro factors that impact the value of the U.S. Dollar and precious metals are all telling us the same thing.

As time wears on and central banks do even more to prop up the broader economy and failing financial institutions, it is without question in my mind that gold and silver will both benefit handsomely from these decisions being made by central bankers from around the world.

Ultimately, I am very bullish of gold and silver in the intermediate to longer-term, but in the immediate short-term frame gold could consolidate or pullback before breaking out to the upside.

By: Chris Vermeulen – Free Weekly ETF Reports & Analysis: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Co-Author: JW Jones – Free Weekly Options Reports & Analysis: www.Optionnacci.com

More information can be obtained HERE

Gold Trend forecast For 1st Quarter 2012

Over the past five months gold has fallen sharply and is no longer headline news which it once dominated back in 2011 when it was making new highs every day. The shiny metal has been under pressure because traders and investors started to pull some money off the table to lock in gains. Gold prices had surged so quick most advanced traders knew that final high volume surge was not sustainable. But the main reason gold topped out in my attitude was because the US Dollar index had place in a bottom and started to build a base. As we all know a rising dollar typically means lower stocks and commodity prices.

I have posted some charts below covering gold in detail using multiple time frames. The weekly which is long term, daily which is the intermediate trend and the 4 hour chart which shows gold momentum and intraday action. At the very bottom I talk about the US Dollar and what is happening with that.

To get more information on the gold trend, CLICK HERE

Gold Weekly Long Term Trend Analysis

The weekly chart is not the most exciting time frame to follow as you will grow ancient watching it. That life said it is crucial for understanding the long term trend, price and volume analysis.

Below you can see that gold’s recent pullback has been a 3 wave rectification, which is a habitual pullback for any investment. But taking into account the rally from 2008 – 2011 I feel this pullback will have one more low place in before bottoming out. This would make for a 5 wave rectification much like what happened in 2008.

To get more information on the gold trend, CLICK HERE

Daily Chart of Gold Showing the Intermediate Trend

The daily chart allows us to see gold intra-week price action and use the 150 moving average which is my preferred daily moving average. As you can see we are getting a similar pullback as 2008 with gold now trading under the 150 MA.

I want to see gold make another lower low in the next 2-3 months. If that happens I feel it complete the rectification and trigger a strong multi month or multiyear rally in gold.

4 Hour Intraday Chart of Gold

The 4 hour chart of gold allows us to see all the intraday price action which would normally not be seen with a daily chart. It also gives us enough data to build our analysis upon.

My preferred setup for gold which I feel if happens will trigger major export in the yellow metal. If/when we get a rally in gold would also likely mean some more economic uncertainty has entered the market either from within the USA, Europe or China…

Weekly Dollar Index Long Term Analysis

The dollar has the potential to rally to the 87 – 88 amount before putting in a major top. For this to happen we will need to see the Euro crumble (both currency and countries divide) in my attitude.

If you look at the weekly chart of gold and this chart of the dollar index you will notice that gold topped when the dollar bottomed. Over the past couple year’s gold and the dollar have had an inverse relationship to each other.

With all kinds of crap about to hit the fan overseas I reckon it’s very possible gold will rally with the dollar. Reason life there is way more people overseas who want to unload their euro’s and with all the negative talk and doubt with the US Dollar individuals will naturally want to buy more gold.

Weekend Trend Trading Conclusion:

In small, I expect a bumpy ride for both stocks and commodities in the first quarter of 2012. With any luck gold will pull back into my price zone shaking the majority of small term traders out just before it bottoms.  And we will be positioning ourselves for a strong rally export into their panic selling.

To just touch base on the general have a supply of market quickly. I have a very bearish outlook for stocks. If the dollar continues to rise it is very likely the have a supply of market will fall into a bear market. So I am VERY cautious with have a supply of at this time.

To get more information on the gold trend, CLICK HERE

If you want to receive my Weekly reports, updates and trading education videos each week join my free newsletter here: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

DOW FUTURES – HOW YOU CAN PROFIT WITH DOW FUTURES MARKETS

Dow futures are an alternate way to invest in the 30 stocks of the dow. However, if you had bought all 30 stocks in the dow, you’d get all the dividends. Hence the “price” of the future is reduced to account for theseries of dividends. Until the futures contract expires.

Dow futures work on 10-1 leverage, or 1,000%. If it is trading at 7,000, a single futures contract would have a market value of $70,000. For every $1 (or “point” as it is known on wall street) the dow jones industrial average fluctuates, the dow futures contract will increase or decrease $10. The result is that a trader who believed the market would rally huge could simply acquire. And make a huge amount of profit as a result of the leverage factor; if the market were to return to 14,000, for instance, from the current 8,000, each. Contract would gain $60,000 in value (6,000 point rise x 10 leverage factor = $60,000). Trading begins on the Chicago Board of Trade at 7:20 a. Eastern time), which is an hour and ten minutes before the stock market opens. That allows trading to take place before the actual stock market opens so reporters and professionals can get an idea of sentiment. Dow futures are a better option than trading individual stocks. There are other advantages of trading the dow futures Dow futures are ideally suited for short-term, leveraged trading. This includes day trading and intra-day trading. The high volume of contracts changing hands each day combined with fully electronic trade execution helps to ensure prompt and reliable order fills. However; while the liquidity and ease of trading these contracts is alluring, they can be a perilous trap for any trader lacking a well thought out, well tested and complete trading system. Additionally, a fundamental understanding of the concepts and rules of trading e-mini dow futures is necessary TREND TV All different types of traders, trading advice and systems can be found on the internet these days, ranging from stocks to options to futures to forex. Some services publish lists of hot stocks to invest in for the long-term. Some give swing trading advice for stocks, options and futures. A few services offer advice and/or systems for trading futures, including e-mini dow futures. Dow futures are easily tradable futures (described previously) based on the dow jones industrial average (djia), which allow for profits based on the point movements (either down or up) of the djia. The cme group’s root symbol for the $5 e-mini dow contracts is. Each contract period has a length of 3 months, so there are four expirations per year – march, june, september and december. The expiration months have symbols, which come immediately after the root symbol ym. Immediately following that is the year symbol. Typically the year is represented as a two digit number such as 08. However, different brokerages and charting services may have slight variations on this system of symbols. The complete symbol for the $5 mini dow is the combination of ym + month + year. Dow futures are an alternate way to invest in the 30 stocks of the dow. However, if you had bought all 30 stocks in the dow, you’d get all the dividends. Hence the “price” of the future is reduced to account for the series of dividends. Until the futures contract expires.

Related Blogs

Equities, Precious Metals and Oil – Updates and Opinion

Here is a update by Chris Vermeulen, respected analyst at TheOilAndGoldGuy.com. He continues with analysis on Equities, precious metals and oil.

It may go against the current opinions of the direction that these commodities are headed but Chris’s analysis is generally very accurate.

Here it is:

December 14th, 2011 at 1:35 pm

Tags: How to trade gold chart, Technical analysis trading
Posted in Daily Market Trades, How To Trade Gold, How to Trade Oil, Oil Analysis, Oil ETF Analysis | Comments Off

So what do you think…will there be a Christmas rally as tradition dictates?

Gold And Stocks In December – Like 2007 and 2008?

Chris Vermeulen of TheGoldAndOilGuy.com gives his analysis.

Thus far in 2011 the overall stock market movement has been much different from what we had in 2010. This year we have seen nothing but sideways to lower prices with wild price swings on a day to day basis. There just has not been any really solid trends to take advantage of this year. Instead we had to actively trade the oversold dips and sell into the overbought rallies to just pull money out of the market on a monthly basis. Last year we saw 3 major rallies that lasted several months making it easy for anyone who bought into the trend to make money if managed properly.

What Will Happen For Gold And Stocks In 2012?

Looking forward to 2012 it looks as though we are going to see some major changes unfold globally that will change the way we do things live our lives. Unfortunately its a very negative outlook but I do have hope that something will be done to perserve are somewhat normal lifestyles. I’m not one to talk doom and gloom, there are enough of those guys out there already so lets stick with the charts and focus on what is unfolding now in the present and how to take advantage of it…

The charts below show what I feel is likely to happen going into the new year IF we don’t get any major headline news in Europe that triggers another selloff.
Intermarket Analysis:

There are a lot of different things unfolding within stocks, commodities, currencies and bonds right now. And it is imporatnt to know that investments are inter-connected in some way. For example, if one investment moves sharply in one direction it will have an effect on other investment classes.

My eye is focused on the US Dollar Index which has recently had a strong run up in price. For the past couple years we have seen stocks fall when the dollar moves up. So with the dollar index now trading at a key resistance level we should see the dollar top out for a few weeks and spark a Christmas rally into year end. After that, all bets are off and we re-analyze…

On the flop side of things, if Europe comes out with major negative headline news we could see the dollar index continue its rally and breakthrough this resistance level. If the dollar moves higher from here we could easily see a multi month run up in the dollar. You do not want to be long stocks if this happens, get short stocks and hold on tight.

Dollar ETF Trading

Gold Daily Chart Analysis:

Here is my positive out look for gold and what I feel is likely to unfold near term. But keep in mind what I just said about the US dollar index above. If the dollar continues its rally and breaks out it could actually put some pressure on gold. I know gold is a safe haven so I do expect it to hold up, but a strong dollar will neutralize a lot of the buying in gold in my opinion.

Gold Christmas Rally

SP500 Daily Charts:

Stocks should have a solid bounce this December if the dollar finds resistance and pulls back in the coming weeks. I am expecting a bounce of 5-10% if all goes as planned.

SP500 Christmas Rally

Christmas Holiday Rally Trading Conclusion:

In short, we are entering a tough time to trade the market. Volatility is low, there are a few holidays and typically we see volume thin out as December unfolds. Light volume generally favors higher prices for stocks and commodities which is one of the reasons we get the holiday lift in prices.

The recent selloff in stocks is looking overdone to the down side and ready to bounce any day. So I am looking for signals to get long the SP500. Overall risk remains very high as sellers are still in control of the market and because we are looking to put on a trade against the intermediate trend which is down.

On Friday morning myself and my followers exited our short position on the SP500 at the open locking in 13.5% profit. We exited the position because the intraday charts are showing signs of a potential bottom and we want to avoid the tear your face off short covering rally that I feel is just around the corner. Now we are waiting for a another low risk setup and will take action to go long or short depending how things unfold in Europe.

I hope this report helped shed some light on the current market condition for you. Remember you can Get my daily pre-market trading videos, intraday updates , and trade alerts with my premium newsletter: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

My Commentary: So it seems that it all depends on what the USD does in the runup to Christmas. If it breaks resistance and goes up. gold and stocks go down and vice versa.

Apple Earnings – Which Direction Is The S&P500 Going?

We have a analysis by JW Jones, expert in ETF Options trading. The last hour of trading was intense on Tuesday and then all eyes were focused on Apple’s earnings which were released around 4:30 ET. The initial reaction to the earnings release is negative although as I write this AAPL is bouncing sharply higher in after-market trading on strong volume. To put the final hour’s volatility into perspective, at 3 P.M. Eastern Time the S&P 500 Index was trading at 1,217. A mere 12 minutes later the S&P 500 Index pushed 15 handles higher to trade up to 1,232. Then sellers stepped in and pushed the S&P 500 lower by nearly 12 handles in the following 20 minutes. The price action was like a roller coaster and I was sitting watching the flickering red and green bars in real time with the anticipation of a child. It was the most excitement I have had in quite some time, but please don’t hold that against me. I don’t know whether reading my previous line makes me laugh or cry, but the truth must be heard I suppose. Enough self-deprecation, I want to get down to business with some charts and what is likely to happen in coming sessions. The sell the news event in AAPL has the potential to really change the price action tomorrow. If prices hold at lower levels, the indices could roll over sharply tomorrow. The S&P 500 E-Mini futures contracts are showing signs of significant weakness after the earnings miss by Apple in aftermarket trading. Some other potentially game changing news items came out of Europe where Reuters reported earlier today that the Eurozone will likely pass legislation that will ban naked CDS ownership on sovereign debt instruments. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner stated this morning that a forthcoming FHA announcement involving a new housing refinance plan was going to be made public in coming days. The statement regarding the new FHA plan helped the banks and homebuilders show relative strength during intraday trading and likely were behind much of the intraday rally.

Relation Of S&P 500 Index (SPX) to S&P E-Mini Futures

I would point out that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) broke out slightly above the August 31 highs before rolling over. The reason that is critical is because the S&P 500 E-Mini futures did not achieve a breakout, but tested to the penny the August 31st highs. I am going to be totally focused on tomorrow’s close as I believe it will leave behind clues about the future price action in the S&P 500 leading up to option expiration where volatility is generally exacerbated. The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below: If Wednesday’s close is below the recent highs near 1,230 we could see this correction intensify. The price action on Tuesday helped stop out the bears and if we see a significant reversal tomorrow the intraday rally today will have been nothing more than a bull trap. The price action Tuesday & Wednesday could lead to the perfect storm for market participants where bears were stopped out and bulls are trapped on the potential reversal.

Head And Shoulders Pattern Appearing In The S&P 500

Another interesting pattern worth discussing is the head and shoulders pattern seen on the SPY hourly chart. The strong rally to the upside may have indeed negated the pattern, but if prices don’t follow through to the upside in the near term and the neckline of this pattern is broken to the downside we could see serious downside follow through. The hourly chart of the Spider SPY Trading ETF is shown below: Ultimately there are two probably scenarios which have different implications going forward. The short-term bullish scenario would likely see prices breakout over recent highs and push higher toward the key resistance area around the 1,260 price level. The 1,260 price level corresponds with the neckline that was broken back in August that led to heavy selling pressure. Bullish Scenario If we do breakout to the upside, the longer term ramification may wind up being quite bearish as most indicators would be screaming that price action was massively overbought at those levels and a sharp selloff could transpire into year end. The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index illustrates the bullish scenario below: Bearish Scenario The short-term bearish scenario would likely involve a break below Monday’s lows that would work down to around the 1,140 level or possibly even lower. If a breakdown took place, a higher low could possibly be carved out on the daily chart which could lead to a multi-month rally that would likely see the neckline mentioned above tested around the holiday season. The daily chart of the S&P 500 below shows the bearish scenario: There are a variety of reasons why either scenario could unfold. Most of the analysis that I look at argues that the bearish scenario is more probable. However, based on what happened in the final hour of trading on Tuesday and the surprise earnings miss from Apple anything could happen. I will likely wait for a confirmed breakout either to the upside above recent highs or to the downside below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern illustrated above before accepting any risk. I am of the opinion that risk is exceptionally high in the near term. I am not going to try to be a hero, instead I am just going to wait patiently for a high probability setup to unfold. Until a convincing breakout in either direction is confirmed, I am going to sit on the sidelines. I am quite content just watching the short-term price action without taking on any new risk. For those that want to be heroes or feel they have to trade, I would trade small and use relatively tight stops to define risk. Risk is excessively high! Subscribers of OTS have pocketed more than 150% return in the past two months. If you’d like to stay ahead of the market using My Low Risk Option Strategies and Trades check out OTS at http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/specials/index.php and take advantage of our free occasional trade ideas or a 66% coupon to sign up for daily market analysis, videos and Option Trades each week. JW Jones This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the OptionsTradingSignals.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.

We can trade with less volatility with Exchange Traded Funds(ETF) and get the leverage with options.

Dow Drops 400 Points

Today we have a up-to-date analysis by Chris Vermeulen of the precipitous events that have occurred since the latest FOMC meeting and the actions of the Fed, as below.

DOW Dropped 500 Points

Adam Hewison of Marketclub rants on the economy, the administration and the market